Presenting the Global Risk 2014 Report by the World Economic Forum, TÜSİAD held a panel on March 14, 2014 at the Milli Reasürans headquarters, entitled “Risk Management and Insurance”
The opening speech was made by Vice Chairman of TÜSİAD Tayfun Bayazıt. During his monologue, Bayazıt stated the importance of the Early Detection of Risk Committee, in saying, “We hope the Early Detection of Risk Committee will create awareness on risk management.” After Bayazıt’s speech, the EMEA Managing Director of Marsh Risk Consulting, Eddie McLaughlin presented the Global Risks 2014 Report.
The panel’s second segment was carried out by the CEO of Marsh Insurance and Reinsurance Broking, Mert Yücesan. The CEO of Allianz Sigorta, Solmaz Altın; Managing Partner of EY, Arzu Pişkinoğlu; Anadolu Endüstri Holding Chief Risk Officer, Özlem Aykaç İğdelipınar; and Risk Management and Insurance President of EnerjiSA, Gökçe Altay Çıtak participated in the panel as speakers.
“I think the definition of black swan for Turkey is: very high impact, low probability”
Stating that a possible earthquake is a black swan risks for Turkey Eddie McLaughlin said, “You’re looking at a natural catastrophe, much bigger than one you’ve seen already. So, much bigger than the Marmara earthquake. That could be a black swan risk for Turkey. Furthermore, I think similar to the Arab Spring crisis. If you had a similar change of regime or social unrest in Turkey. That could be seen as another black swan.” Moreover, when we asked whether Gezi Parkı demonstrations would considered a black swan or not for Turkey, McLaughlin said, “ I think you could see it as a leading indicator of a potential future event.”
In regard to the effect of global risks on Turkey as a whole and its insurance industry, McLaughlin explained how Turkey has the protection of the EU and NATO. Furthermore, McLaughlin stated that Turkey has had stable, excellent growth, in terms of GDP, and is a world-developed economy. Pointing out that 40% of Turkey’s trade is with Europe, Eddie McLaughlin said “An economic crisis or collapse in Europe could have quite an effect on Turkey.” As a result, its not simply about the risks within Turkey, but actually about the risks elsewhere in the world. He mentioned these risks could have “quite an effect on supply chain, trade, and currency collapse.”
